Research

Treasuries: Who’s Buying and Why It Matters | Weekly Market Commentary | February 20, 2024

Treasuries: Who’s Buying and Why It Matters | Weekly Market Commentary | February 20, 2024

As the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues with its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program, questions abound regarding the Treasury Department’s expanding funding needs. The QT program is designed to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet — now $7.7 billion down from $9 billion — after Treasury notes (mostly) were bought after economic concerns intensified during the COVID-19-related pandemic. Households and, perhaps surprisingly, foreign investors have been buyers recently, and with the amount of Treasury supply coming to market, both will need to keep buying.

Outlook For U.S. Economy Continues To Brighten | Weekly Market Commentary | February 12, 2024

Outlook For U.S. Economy Continues To Brighten | Weekly Market Commentary | February 12, 2024

When we wrote the annual outlook last November, the data was mixed. Some metrics hinted at emerging cracks in the economy while others suggested the growth trajectory in capital markets and the economy had legs. So, the variety of the data produced the narrative that business activity in the New Year would grow on an annual basis but experience some bumps in the first half of the year. Now, enter the revisions.

Will The January Barometer Come Through? | Weekly Market Commentary | February 5, 2024

Will The January Barometer Come Through? | Weekly Market Commentary | February 5, 2024

Yale Hirsch, creator of the “Stock Trader’s Almanac”, first discovered this seasonal pattern back in 1972, which he called the January Barometer and coined its popular tagline of ‘As goes January, so goes this year.’ Here, we assess the likelihood that this popular stock market adage delivers more gains for investors this year. The weight of the evidence leans toward yes, as we explain.

Is Too Much Optimism Priced In? | Weekly Market Commentary | January 29, 2024

Is Too Much Optimism Priced In? | Weekly Market Commentary | January 29, 2024

On traditional valuation measures, valuations do appear high and it does seem reasonable to expect more moderate stock market returns going forward. Here we walk through several different stock valuation approaches to get a more complete picture and even make the case that they aren’t as pricey as they look.

Will Shipping Disruptions Alter Fed Plans? | Weekly Market Commentary | January 22, 2024

Will Shipping Disruptions Alter Fed Plans? | Weekly Market Commentary | January 22, 2024

Shipping disruptions in the Red Sea could temporarily impact goods prices but not at the same magnitude as during the pandemic. Tight financial conditions, slowing economic growth, and a disinflationary trend all support the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) pivot away from tightening monetary policy to easing in the new year. Despite these longer term trends, rates possibly got ahead of themselves in recent weeks, exhibiting higher volatility.

Treasuries: Who’s Buying and Why It Matters | Weekly Market Commentary | February 20, 2024

Treasuries: Who’s Buying and Why It Matters | Weekly Market Commentary | February 20, 2024

As the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues with its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program, questions abound regarding the Treasury Department’s expanding funding needs. The QT program is designed to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet — now $7.7 billion down from $9 billion — after Treasury notes (mostly) were bought after economic concerns intensified during the COVID-19-related pandemic. Households and, perhaps surprisingly, foreign investors have been buyers recently, and with the amount of Treasury supply coming to market, both will need to keep buying.

Outlook For U.S. Economy Continues To Brighten | Weekly Market Commentary | February 12, 2024

Outlook For U.S. Economy Continues To Brighten | Weekly Market Commentary | February 12, 2024

When we wrote the annual outlook last November, the data was mixed. Some metrics hinted at emerging cracks in the economy while others suggested the growth trajectory in capital markets and the economy had legs. So, the variety of the data produced the narrative that business activity in the New Year would grow on an annual basis but experience some bumps in the first half of the year. Now, enter the revisions.

Will The January Barometer Come Through? | Weekly Market Commentary | February 5, 2024

Will The January Barometer Come Through? | Weekly Market Commentary | February 5, 2024

Yale Hirsch, creator of the “Stock Trader’s Almanac”, first discovered this seasonal pattern back in 1972, which he called the January Barometer and coined its popular tagline of ‘As goes January, so goes this year.’ Here, we assess the likelihood that this popular stock market adage delivers more gains for investors this year. The weight of the evidence leans toward yes, as we explain.

Is Too Much Optimism Priced In? | Weekly Market Commentary | January 29, 2024

Is Too Much Optimism Priced In? | Weekly Market Commentary | January 29, 2024

On traditional valuation measures, valuations do appear high and it does seem reasonable to expect more moderate stock market returns going forward. Here we walk through several different stock valuation approaches to get a more complete picture and even make the case that they aren’t as pricey as they look.

Will Shipping Disruptions Alter Fed Plans? | Weekly Market Commentary | January 22, 2024

Will Shipping Disruptions Alter Fed Plans? | Weekly Market Commentary | January 22, 2024

Shipping disruptions in the Red Sea could temporarily impact goods prices but not at the same magnitude as during the pandemic. Tight financial conditions, slowing economic growth, and a disinflationary trend all support the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) pivot away from tightening monetary policy to easing in the new year. Despite these longer term trends, rates possibly got ahead of themselves in recent weeks, exhibiting higher volatility.

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