Research

A Basket of Uncertainty Bolsters the Dollar | Weekly Market Commentary | November 25, 2024

A Basket of Uncertainty Bolsters the Dollar | Weekly Market Commentary | November 25, 2024

The dollar’s continued climb higher has been predicated on a host of factors — including the rise in geopolitical risk and the dollar’s safe haven status as inflows have picked up markedly, uncertainty with regard to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate move in December, a solid domestic economic landscape with inflation still “sticky,” a weakening euro as expectations suggest the potential for a stronger rate cut, and questions regarding the inflationary implications of the Trump administration’s tariff agenda. With more questions than answers, the dollar’s ascent is expected to continue — or level off — until there’s more definitive information regarding the extent of tariffs, and on the other side of the equation, the effect of retaliatory tariffs. Global capital markets seek clarity, particularly the currency market.

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Election Day Takeaways | Weekly Market Commentary | November 11, 2024

Election Day Takeaways | Weekly Market Commentary | November 11, 2024

The clouds of uncertainty parted last week as former President Donald Trump decisively won the U.S. election, making him the second U.S. president to win non-consecutive terms (Grover Cleveland was the first to do it back in 1892). Investors welcomed the news with renewed risk appetite, bidding the S&P 500 to its 50th record high of the year on Friday. Trump’s proposed economic policies, including deregulation, a likely extension of the 2017 tax cuts, a possible corporate tax rate cut, and proposed tax exemptions on tips, social security, and overtime pay helped underpin buyer enthusiasm. The immediate de-risking of when the election will be decided was another big factor behind the post Election Day rally.

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Q3 Earnings Should Be Fine, but Expectations Beyond This Quarter Are High | Weekly Market Commentary | October 21, 2024

Q3 Earnings Should Be Fine, but Expectations Beyond This Quarter Are High | Weekly Market Commentary | October 21, 2024

The S&P 500 consensus earnings growth number of 3% for the third quarter is not something to write home about, especially after double-digit earnings growth in the second quarter. The soft number is partly due to a tougher comparison. In Q2 2024, earnings had an easier comparison with a 3.3% drop in earnings in the prior-year quarter (Q2 2023 vs. Q2 2022). For the third quarter now being reported, the comparison gets tougher as earnings growth in Q3 2023 was over 5% (vs. Q2 2022).

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Gold Rally Is No Flash in the Pan | Weekly Market Commentary | September 30, 2024

Gold Rally Is No Flash in the Pan | Weekly Market Commentary | September 30, 2024

When it comes to investing, gold may be the antithesis of artificial intelligence (AI). The precious metal has acted as a store of value for thousands of years with zero technological innovation — gold is discovered, not developed. Gold is also a real tangible asset and can act as a potential hedge against inflation or a safe haven during times of crisis.

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Policy Crosscurrents: Potential Market Impacts | Weekly Market Commentary | September 23, 2024

Policy Crosscurrents: Potential Market Impacts | Weekly Market Commentary | September 23, 2024

Of course, last week’s headliner was Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates by a half percent on Wednesday, September 18, the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic broke out in 2020. The Fed “pause” ended at 423 days and now stands as the second-longest on record, while the 26% gain for the S&P 500 during the pause (7/27/23–9/18/24) ranks first. Here we share some thoughts on the Fed’s move last week and some potential market implications of not only Fed policy but also fiscal policy post-election.

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Election Implications on the Municipal Market | Weekly Market Commentary | September 16, 2024

Election Implications on the Municipal Market | Weekly Market Commentary | September 16, 2024

While there are still several months until the election is decided, the expectation is that regardless of who ultimately becomes our 47th president, the biggest loser could be the fiscal deficit. Per the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the U.S. government is expected to run sizable deficits over the next decade — to the tune of 5% – 7% of gross domestic product (GDP) each year. According to the CBO, the deficit increases significantly in relation to GDP over the next 30 years, reaching 8.5% of GDP in 2054.

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Second Quarter Earnings Recap:  Good, Not Great | Weekly Market Commentary | September 9, 2024

Second Quarter Earnings Recap: Good, Not Great | Weekly Market Commentary | September 9, 2024

Second quarter numbers were quite good and generally in line with LPL Research’s expectations. In our earnings preview on July 1, we called for double-digit earnings growth and we got it — S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) grew nearly 12% in the quarter, or over 13% excluding a $9.1 billion write-down of media assets by Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD). Profit margins expanded quarter over quarter by a not insignificant 0.4%, indicating companies did a good job controlling costs.

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