Research

To say the U.S. economy has been difficult to read is an understatement. From generationally high inflation and interest rates to concerns about the labor market, it’s no wonder consumers are unsure about the overall health of the economy.

LPL Research’s Outlook 2025: Pragmatic Optimism will be released tomorrow and available on LPL.com. Here we just provide an appetizer before the main course and share some of the stock and bond market themes covered in the full publication.

The dollar’s continued climb higher has been predicated on a host of factors — including the rise in geopolitical risk and the dollar’s safe haven status as inflows have picked up markedly, uncertainty with regard to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate move in December, a solid domestic economic landscape with inflation still “sticky,” a weakening euro as expectations suggest the potential for a stronger rate cut, and questions regarding the inflationary implications of the Trump administration’s tariff agenda. With more questions than answers, the dollar’s ascent is expected to continue — or level off — until there’s more definitive information regarding the extent of tariffs, and on the other side of the equation, the effect of retaliatory tariffs. Global capital markets seek clarity, particularly the currency market.

Trade dynamics have shifted considerably since President Trump’s first administration. Reshoring among U.S. businesses and headwinds to the Chinese economy may limit the inflationary impact from rogue trade policy.

The clouds of uncertainty parted last week as former President Donald Trump decisively won the U.S. election, making him the second U.S. president to win non-consecutive terms (Grover Cleveland was the first to do it back in 1892). Investors welcomed the news with renewed risk appetite, bidding the S&P 500 to its 50th record high of the year on Friday. Trump’s proposed economic policies, including deregulation, a likely extension of the 2017 tax cuts, a possible corporate tax rate cut, and proposed tax exemptions on tips, social security, and overtime pay helped underpin buyer enthusiasm. The immediate de-risking of when the election will be decided was another big factor behind the post Election Day rally.

Stocks have done so well this year that it’s fair to say market participants haven’t feared much. But just because risks haven’t affected markets lately doesn’t mean they won’t in the future. In that “spirit,” as Halloween approaches, we discuss what scares us about the economy and financial markets.

The S&P 500 consensus earnings growth number of 3% for the third quarter is not something to write home about, especially after double-digit earnings growth in the second quarter. The soft number is partly due to a tougher comparison. In Q2 2024, earnings had an easier comparison with a 3.3% drop in earnings in the prior-year quarter (Q2 2023 vs. Q2 2022). For the third quarter now being reported, the comparison gets tougher as earnings growth in Q3 2023 was over 5% (vs. Q2 2022).

When it comes to investing, gold may be the antithesis of artificial intelligence (AI). The precious metal has acted as a store of value for thousands of years with zero technological innovation — gold is discovered, not developed. Gold is also a real tangible asset and can act as a potential hedge against inflation or a safe haven during times of crisis.

Of course, last week’s headliner was Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting rates by a half percent on Wednesday, September 18, the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic broke out in 2020. The Fed “pause” ended at 423 days and now stands as the second-longest on record, while the 26% gain for the S&P 500 during the pause (7/27/23–9/18/24) ranks first. Here we share some thoughts on the Fed’s move last week and some potential market implications of not only Fed policy but also fiscal policy post-election.

While there are still several months until the election is decided, the expectation is that regardless of who ultimately becomes our 47th president, the biggest loser could be the fiscal deficit. Per the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the U.S. government is expected to run sizable deficits over the next decade — to the tune of 5% – 7% of gross domestic product (GDP) each year. According to the CBO, the deficit increases significantly in relation to GDP over the next 30 years, reaching 8.5% of GDP in 2054.