Research

Five Reasons the Run in Emerging Markets Could Continue | Weekly Market Commentary | February 9, 2026

Five Reasons the Run in Emerging Markets Could Continue | Weekly Market Commentary | February 9, 2026

After a stellar 2025 in which emerging market (EM) equities returned 34%, 2026 is off to a good start with the MSCI EM Index up 7% year to date. Last year’s near doubling of the S&P 500 return was driven mostly by a weakening U.S. dollar, which propped up EM returns, but attractive valuations and artificial intelligence (AI) investment played a role. This week we highlight five reasons we’ve warmed up to EM.

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Dueling Mandates: The Fed’s Policy Caution and Treasury’s Growing Borrowing Needs | Weekly Market Commentary | February 2, 2026

Dueling Mandates: The Fed’s Policy Caution and Treasury’s Growing Borrowing Needs | Weekly Market Commentary | February 2, 2026

The Federal Reserve (Fed) enters 2026 navigating potentially constrained policy conditions as resilient growth and above‑trend inflation intersect with an increasingly unsustainable fiscal trajectory. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that federal debt growth requires eventual corrective action, even if near‑term market risks remain limited. Rising primary deficits at near full employment further limit long‑run policy flexibility, while expanding Treasury financing needs — and a growing reliance on short‑duration bills — heighten rollover risk and amplify sensitivity to the Fed’s policy rate.

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Evaluating Our 2025 Forecasts: Equity, Fixed Income, and the U.S. Economy | Weekly Market Commentary | January 5, 2026

Evaluating Our 2025 Forecasts: Equity, Fixed Income, and the U.S. Economy | Weekly Market Commentary | January 5, 2026

With 2025 behind us, it’s a good time to celebrate some of our better forecasts from last year while also reviewing some misses we can learn from. In our view, we got more right than wrong last year, but there were some misses among our tactical asset allocation recommendations. For the second straight year, as the bull market marched on, the most impactful decision we made was probably to recommend investors stay fully invested in equities at benchmark levels throughout the entire year despite elevated valuations.

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Early Keys to 2026 | Weekly Market Commentary | November 17, 2025

Early Keys to 2026 | Weekly Market Commentary | November 17, 2025

As 2025 nears its final 100 calendar days, market focus is already beginning to turn forward and attempt to reconcile what market drivers could remain in place, and what could change in the first year of the new half-decade. While not an exhaustive list, here’s some of our early keys to 2026.

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